Bulgaria expects BGN 2.4 billion in revenue from the sale of carbon quotas for 2023
Source：Dir Bg
From：Taiwan Trade Center, Sofia
Update Time：2023/04/14
Bulgaria expects EUR 1.2 billion or BGN 2.4 billion in revenue from the sale of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions from installations for 2023, 3eNews has learned. The data is a conservative estimate based on Sandbag analysis and futures prices on the ICE exchange until December 2025. This includes income from quotas under Art. 10c of the Directive on the European Emissions Trading Scheme (Directive 2003/87/EC) - through an auction, taking an average price per ton of carbon dioxide of 90 euros per ton.
However, the estimated prices are unstable on an annual basis due to the great dynamics of the market of energy prices, the current geopolitical situation and the ongoing negotiations in the Council on the proposals of the EC for new legislative acts and amendments to existing ones from the package "Prepared for the purpose of 55% ".
For 2023 and the period January 1, 2023 - June 30, 2023, the auction quantities for Bulgaria generally do not include 5,159,984 quotas each year, which are allocated to the country under the derogation according to Art. 10c of the Directive. They would have to be distributed according to certain rules to the electricity producers, if this derogation were to work for Bulgaria.
These allowances (5,159,984 per year until 2030) can only be used either for allocation to electricity producers, if the derogation is approved by the EC, or auctioned. In order to be included in the tender quantities for Bulgaria for the respective year, it is necessary to declare this officially with a letter from the Minister of Energy to DG Climate of the European Commission.
By June, 4 million tons of allowances are expected to be traded, and by the end of the year 8 million tons, and revenues are calculated at estimated prices of 90 euros per ton. By June, half of the amount of 592 million euros or over 1 billion leva will be traded, according to preliminary forecasts of the Ministry of Environment and Water.
The quotas under Art. 10c of Directive 2003/87/EC are another 2.5 million by June and 5.1 million by the end of the year. The total amount of quotas, if the quotas under Art. 10c, become 6.5 million by June and more than 13.1 million by the end of the year.
The expected revenues from the sale of quotas from the installations alone are EUR 360 million or BGN 704 million by June and EUR 720 million or BGN 1.4 billion by the end of the year. But with the addition of the quotas from the derogation, the planned revenues increase to BGN 2.4 billion.
Revenues from emissions quotas in Bulgaria are an important tool for stimulating low-carbon development. 100% (until June 2016 - 77%) of the revenues from the auction sale of all emission quotas allocated to Bulgaria for greenhouse gas installations are contributed to the Energy System Security Fund, which are used to reduce the price for obligations to society.
In 2022, installations that will have to buy allowances look with anxiety and tension to the EU carbon market. But it turns out that Bulgaria will continue to earn record amounts from the fact that business buys additional emission quotas against air pollution.
Source: https://business.dir.bg/energien-pazar/balgariya-ochakva-2-4-mlrd-leva-prihodi-ot-prodazhba-na-vaglerodni-kvoti-za-2023-g