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Otkritie Avto experts (Otkritie Bank's auto business unit) analyzed the sales results of July 2023. According to the AEB, 52.8 thousand vehicles were found during the second month of summer. However, taking into account Moskvich, German premium brands, as well as "Chinese" from the Chery, Changan, Geely, JAC groups, the volume of the new car market in July amounted to about 86 thousand "pieces" (+139%). At the same time, the leader of our retail — the Lada brand — has sold about 30 thousand new cars. This turned out to be the best result in the last year and a half. In turn, the total share of sales of domestic brands decreased to about 47%, 3 percentage points less than the June results. The "Chinese", on the contrary, came close to taking half of the market. August can maintain the same trend thanks to the stocks of foreign cars imported before the increase in the recycling fee. But starting from autumn, the share of cars of domestic brands will continue to grow again.

The summer vacation season and corporate holidays at a number of factories did not prevent July from becoming the third month of triple-digit growth in Russian retail. The reason for such rosy dynamics remains the same — extremely low sales in the spring and summer months of last year, when sometimes less than 30 thousand new cars were sold on our market. At the same time, a new factor also manifested itself more vividly than usual — a clear understanding by customers that already "tomorrow" all cars will cost even more. Despite the requests of official retailers transmitted through the ROAD to the government, the recycling fee has been significantly increased since August 1. At the same time, a number of distributors of Chinese brands had quite substantial stocks of cars imported into our country in the spring, when they asked for less than 12 rubles for the yuan. They were given at a discount. The sharp increase in car prices that began in July (for some models in the hundreds of thousands of rubles) accelerated the plans to buy cars from many Russians, including contributing to an increase in sales of goods out of stock.

At the same time, the leader of our retail — the Lada brand — has sold 29,378 passenger and LCV cars. This turned out to be the best sales result for the month since December 2021. Perhaps the achievements could have been even higher if the plant still had no problems with components. From July 26 to July 31, the parent company in Togliatti stopped for another corporate vacation. During this time, the auto giant tried to minimize problems with logistics and delivery times of missing parts for assembly. Nevertheless, incomplete cars continued to be supplied to dealers. Their retrofitting is carried out gradually in the services of retailers as the components arrive.

One way or another, but in the leaders of the model rating in July there were already two AVTOVAZ models. According to Lada Granta, 17,170 transactions took place, 413 "pieces" or 2% more than in June. Lada Vesta was bought by 5,133 customers (+21% by June). On the version with a 16-valve engine, dealers formed queues for three to four weeks. Two Nivas sold approximately equal circulation of 3.4 thousand cars. Both models have also found their place in the list of the top 10 best in popularity in our market.

Other domestic brands traditionally remain in the role of catching up. Thus, sales of Moskvich crossovers gradually began to gain momentum and for the third month in a row exceed a thousand cars. However, in general, this project is still more political than economic. In the eight months since the start of production, only about six thousand cars were transferred to dealers, and 5.1 thousand were registered in 2023. At the same time, under the pressure of the declining ruble exchange rate, the plant sharply raised prices in August — by 228 — 392 thousand rubles, depending on the model. How exactly this will affect sales will be clear by the fall.

At the same time, sales of GAZ cars in July amounted to 4.8 thousand cars, about the same as in June. After the closing of the half-year, the next increase in sales of commercial equipment may most likely take place in September and will affect the total business volumes of the Nizhny Novgorod plant for the third quarter as a whole. In turn, UAZ reported 3.8 thousand all—terrain vehicles sold (+12% by June), and Sollers - 664 LCV trucks and vans sold (+21% by June).

The title of the best-selling foreign car in July, according to AEB, was retained by Haval Jolion (4.4 thousand vehicles). The leader in the dynamics of sales growth at the same time was the Great Wall brand (+431%).

AvtoVAZ will be the main locomotive of our passenger car market both in autumn and in the fourth quarter as a whole. At the very beginning of August, the company announced that it had produced 160.9 thousand cars in seven months. At the same time, about 240 thousand cars should be assembled over the remaining months. To do this, Togliatti plans to increase productivity and reduce the release cycle. So, on the Lada Vesta line they want to produce up to 40 cars per hour, and on the Granta assembly line — up to 52 vehicles per hour. In the autumn, the company promises to resume production of the fifth model long—awaited by many customers - station wagons and Lada Largus vans. By the end of this year, production of Lada Vesta with a variator can begin. In previous years, "automatic" cars from Togliatti accounted for up to a third of the model's sales. Also, the color palette should be expanded in the fall. In addition, Lada X-Cross 5 cars based on the FAW Bestune T77 can go on sale. At the same time, the expansion of Chinese brands may slow down somewhat against the background of rising prices and increased competition between "compatriots".

Marina Dembitskaya, Head of Otkritie Avto (Auto Business Unit of Otkritie Bank):

"In general, the dynamics of the Russian retail recovery will continue to be limited not so much by the lack of cars as by the low purchasing power of the population against the background of current prices for new cars. One way or another, but in the absence of economic and political upheavals, the Russian car market may close August with sales of 85-90 thousand new passenger cars and LCVs imported by official distributors."

 

Source: https://www.open.ru/about/press/48174