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The demand for passenger cars in August remains consistently high, despite the increase in prices, and the result for the month will update the local record. According to Kommersant's calculations, sales will reach the level of about 107 thousand cars, which is only 10 thousand lower than in August of the pre-crisis 2021. Analysts note that low sales in 2022 and a shortage of cars have formed a deferred demand, which now, against the background of expanding supply, will inevitably be realized.

According to Autostat, 23.8 thousand passenger cars were sold in the Russian Federation in the week from August 21 to 27. This is 6% more than in the previous week, which showed the worst result for this month — 22.4 thousand cars sold, and approximately at the level of the second week of the month (23.1 thousand).

At the same time, the expectation of updating price lists against the background of the weakening of the ruble and the increase in scrap collection from August 1 gave a surge in demand in the first week of the month (from July 31 to August 6) - then the sale was a record, amounting to 28.9 thousand cars. Thus, the subsequent rise in price and the increase in the Central Bank rate in the middle of the month still reduced the pace of sales.

The demand for new cars in August was within the plans for this month, there were no distortions from the change in the value of the ruble, says Andrey Olkhovsky, CEO of Avtodom Group. He explains that transactions for the purchase of a car, as a rule, are not made in one day. "There is a selection process, approval of financial products, and only then a transaction takes place," he explains. "In this case, during the period when the Bank of Russia rate was raised, previously agreed and approved transactions were closed."

Andrey Kamensky, Marketing Director of Avilon AG, agrees that there is no significant decrease in demand for new cars in August. "Buyers are still eager to make a deal before the next price increase, and the news about the growth of the Central Bank's key rate has only strengthened this," he says.

The average cost of a new car in August increased to 3 million rubles due to the growth of the recycling fee and the low ruble exchange rate, adds Evgeny Zhitnukhin, head of the dealer direction of the automotive marketplace Fresh, but demand remained high throughout the month.

By the end of the year, we can expect price tags for new cars to rise by another 30% due to the volatility of the ruble exchange rate and increased customs clearance costs, Mr. Zhitnukhin predicts.

In addition, the availability of stocks at old prices also affected. Andrey Olkhovsky says that about "about a month such cars will still be presented in showrooms." Andrey Kamensky, however, notes that today cars from previously imported batches are presented at dealers in extremely limited quantities. Evgeny Zhitnukhin also records that there are practically no cars at the old prices left in dealers' warehouses by the end of this month.

Based on the data of "Autostat" and calculations of "Kommersant", in August the market will reach the level of about 107 thousand new passenger cars, continuing the trend of recovery. Before that, the monthly record from February 2022 was at the end of July, when sales amounted to 95.7 thousand cars. Sales have not risen above 100 thousand since 2021. Judging by the data for 2021, the result will be about 10 thousand lower than the pre-crisis August. According to the results of seven months, 497.2 thousand new passenger cars were sold in the Russian Federation, "Autostat" reported based on the data of the "Electronic passport". The agency's forecast suggests sales growth of up to 1 million cars by the end of the year, or sales at the level of 100 thousand cars in the remaining months.

Automotive expert Vladimir Bespalov says that sales at the level of about 100 thousand cars in the coming months, with the exception of low seasons, is a real scenario. He points to the still high level of unsatisfied demand, which has been formed since the spring of 2022 against the background of a shortage of supply. Now, the analyst continues, the offer is gradually expanding in different niches, it is "better than a year ago," and, obviously, the fleet should be updated. In August, sales were partly influenced by expectations of a rise in the price of cars, which probably gave a surge in sales at the beginning of the month, concludes Mr. Bespalov. At the same time, the analyst notes that the remaining shortage of supply is now balanced by the price level.

Source: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6185066?from=glavnoe_3