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Sales of passenger cars in Russia at the end of 2023 will amount to 1.059 million units versus 606,860 cars in 2022. In subsequent years, the market will experience smooth growth: up to 1.108 million in 2024, 1.163 million in 2025 and 1.225 million cars in 2026. This is stated in the forecast of socio-economic development of Russia for the corresponding years. Vedomosti has the document.

The basis of the market in 2023, as in the year before, will be the category of passenger cars with power from 90 to 150 hp. pp., follows from the forecast. It will account for almost half of sales, or 524,620 vehicles. As a rule, these are compact and middle-class cars with an engine capacity of 1.4 to 2 liters.

The second place in terms of mass production is occupied by the category of cars with power from 150 to 200 hp. Last year its volume was 110,080 vehicles, the forecast for this year is 192,020 units. This is almost a sixth of the market - both for 2022 and 2023. The segment of compact cars with a power of up to 90 hp is close to it. It is expected that this year their sales will be 189,180 units versus 108,450 units. in 2022.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the export of Russian passenger vehicles abroad this year will decrease by 7 times compared to 2022 to 5,000 vehicles. This is the worst result since 2011. The recovery of exports in the coming years will be slow. In 2024, the volume of deliveries abroad will be 6,500 vehicles, in 2025 – 10,080 vehicles, and in 2026 – 12,090 units of equipment, it follows from the document.

But this year the import of passenger cars to Russia will increase sharply – almost 3 times. It will account for almost every second car purchased in the country. In total, this figure will be 444,280 units of equipment compared to 156,520 vehicles for last year, the forecast says. It is noteworthy that, according to the ministry’s vision for subsequent periods, imports will decrease significantly: from 382,350 vehicles in 2024 to 257,800 units. in 2026

According to the analytical agency Autostat, of the total volume of new passenger cars sold in August (109,731 units), 46% were imported, and another 13% were imported through the so-called alternative imports. This is the import of equipment by legal entities without the permission of the copyright holder or the import by individuals. Russian brands accounted for 29% of sales in August, the remaining 12% were locally assembled foreign cars.

After the departure of key Western, Korean and Japanese automakers, Chinese brands continue to dominate the brand structure of the Russian market. In August, their total share reached 56% versus 51% in July 2023 and 26% in August 2022, according to Autostat data. For comparison: the share of Russian brands in August of this year was 29% versus 31% in July and 39% in August last year.

The market was able to reach current volumes by allowing parallel imports, explains Sergei Udalov, executive director of Autostat. According to him, Chinese automakers are not interested in assembling and localizing vehicles in Russia, and the growth in production of local brands has not yet been realized. This is confirmed by Rosstat data: over eight months, the production of passenger cars decreased by 10% year-on-year to 294,000 units.

 “Taking into account the projected decrease in imports, including due to an increase in recycling collection, it is not clear what will be sold on the market with the projected increase in demand. There was a change of priority: first it was necessary to increase domestic production, and then reduce imports,” the expert believes. From August 1 in Russia, the recycling fee rate for passenger cars was increased by an average of 1.7–3.7 times, depending on the engine size, and most benefits for individuals when paying the recycling fee were abolished.

Source: https://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/articles/2023/10/02/998181-minekonomrazvitiya-prognoziruet-rost-avtorinka?utm_campaign=newspaper_2_10_2023&utm_medium=email&utm_source=vedomosti