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The rapid growth of the market for new trucks in Russia by the end of 2023 is expected to lead to the establishment of a new record in terms of their sales. This forecast was given to Vedomosti by the analytical agencies Autostat and Autostat Info.

Autostat expects that in 2023 the volume of sales of new trucks (from 3.5 tons to 40 tons) will be in the range of 126,000 to 154,000 units, the agency representative says. The market growth in this case will be from 50 to 83%. According to the results of the three quarters of this year, sales have already increased by 81% in annual terms to 105,800 trucks, the interlocutor recalls.

For comparison: for the whole of last year, 84,200 units of such equipment were sold in Russia, in 2021 – 99,700 units. 2012 remains a record year, when 128,900 new trucks were sold in the Russian Federation.

This segment of the market in 2023 may well set a new record and reach the sales level of 150,000 units, the representative of Autostat Info believes. Such an indicator will largely be provided by sales of heavy (14-40 tons) trucks, the interlocutor notes. Moreover, the structure of this market has completely changed, he admits.

Experts and participants of the cargo transportation market name a set of reasons that gave rise to a boom in sales of new trucks. First of all, the effect of the low base of 2022, when the supply of products from most foreign manufacturers to Russia stopped abruptly, affects. Volvo Trucks, Mercedes, Scania, MAN, DAF, Iveco, Renault, Mitsubishi, Fuso, Isuzu left Russia after the start of their own in Ukraine. The carriers simply could not find a replacement for them promptly.

In a recent review by Expert RA (Vedomosti has it) on the vehicle leasing market, it is noted that large road carriers and construction companies are "actively closing the fleet deficit" with Chinese cars, and the development of infrastructure projects and building new logistics "stimulate the increase in cargo transportation and demand for appropriate equipment."

"In conditions when manufacturers from Europe stopped supplying cars, spare parts and revoke service licenses, we had to choose Chinese cars," confirms Konstantin Kourov, head of the Autobahn motor transport branch. According to him, there are "no problems" with the supply of dump trucks and spare parts from China, and the price of a Chinese dump truck is 2-3 times lower than that of a European one.

Nikolay Pakhomov, head of the Logistics Products Department at CDEK, says that the company used to actively use Mercedes trucks, but now there is no such offer on the market. "In this regard, we analyze the proposals and look for new optimal solutions that meet our requirements," the top manager said.

Another reason for the rise in demand for trucks was the rapid growth of trucking, which required an increase in the fleets of transport companies. According to Rosstat, in the first nine months of 2023, the turnover of motor vehicles in Russia increased by 17.9% year-on-year. The most important role in increasing cargo transportation was played by the active implementation of major infrastructure projects – for example, the accelerated construction of the new M12Vostok highway, where a huge number of dump trucks are involved. State support  (preferential leasing), the growth of automobile cargo transportation and truck prices, as well as the implementation of infrastructure projects are also called as growth drivers by analysts of Kept in the review of the car leasing market (Vedomosti has it). 

Experts also talk about the effect of deferred demand: "Buyers of trucks postponed their purchase due to uncertainty in 2022. Now everything is very clear: the Europeans will not return, but there is an alternative in the form of Chinese cars," explained Azat Timerkhanov, press secretary of Autostat. In addition, there is an objective need in the market for the gradual replacement of aging and expensive repair equipment of Western brands. The average age of a truck in Russia has increased from 18.9 years in 2015 to 21.6 years by mid-2021, according to the Expert RA review. At the same time, at the beginning of 2023, the share of vehicles older than 10 years reached 69%. The maintenance, maintenance and repair of such machines required an increase in costs due to the sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate against the euro and dollar in 2023.

Leasing prospects

According to Expert RA, in the first half of 2023, the volume of new business with trucks (weighing from 3.5 tons and above) occupied 31% of the entire leasing market, amounting to 466 billion rubles in monetary terms. In the first half of 2022, this share was 14.8%. Also in recent years, the so-called penetration of leasing into sales has increased (the share of cars purchased on lease). According to the results of the six months of 2023, the penetration of leasing into truck sales amounted to about 85%, while in 2016 the same indicator barely exceeded 50%, the review indicates.

Similar figures are given in the National Agency for Industrial Information (NAPI). They give data for seven months: the share of leasing in the market of new trucks was 87.4%, in the market of used equipment – 18.3%. In January – July in the country, according to the NAPI, 92,600 new and used trucks were issued for financial leasing (+59%).

The largest leasing companies in terms of portfolio volume in the first half of the year, according to Expert RA, are Gazprombank-Leasing, Sberbank-Leasing, Alfa-Leasing, Europlan, VTB-Leasing.

Europlan and Alfa-Leasing confirmed to Vedomosti an increase in the number of leasing transactions this year. Other companies did not respond to inquiries. Europlan clarified that in nine months they leased 59% more cargo vehicles in monetary terms than in the same period of 2021. According to the company, the niche of European manufacturers who left the Russian Federation was occupied by Chinese brands. The expansion of cars from China in the commercial transport segment began in 2020, the company adds. At the same time, the share of domestic trucks in the company's portfolio, according to Anatoly Aminov, Financial director of Europlan, does not decrease.

State programs operating in the Russian Federation, under which subsidies are provided, also stimulate the purchase of equipment for leasing. In the federal budget for 2023, 2 billion rubles were initially allocated under the program of preferential leasing of wheeled vehicles, in September the program was expanded by another 7.8 billion rubles. "We predict the extension of subsidy programs in the following years," the Expert RA review says.

The leasing scheme in today's conditions is the most convenient and profitable for transport companies, they purchase most of the equipment using it. Dmitry Ievlev, CEO of Avto-PEC, notes that leasing payments can be written off as expenses, thereby reducing the tax base. It is also possible to deduct VAT from these payments and evenly reduce the tax paid, he adds. According to Sergey Chernov, CEO of the Skif-Cargo carrier company, the average leasing rate is 10% per annum.

"Autobahn", according to Kourov, acquired all 50 new cars this year on lease. The top manager emphasizes that monthly lease payments for new cars are now "comparable to the cost of the inevitable expensive repairs of cars that have run out of their resource."

According to Expert RA, the truck segment became the largest in the Russian leasing market in 2023, followed by construction/road construction equipment and railway equipment. By the end of the year, Expert RA predicts market growth of 120%, then it will grow by 10-20% annually until 2027.

Analysts at Kept also forecast growth in 2023, but a little more modest: by more than 90%. "In the forecast period (2023-2027), a further increase in the level of leasing penetration into sales of new trucks is expected from 82% in 2023 to 83-87% by 2027, which will lead to an increase in the volume of new business in the truck segment by an average of 22-23% annually in monetary terms," the review says.

By the end of the year, growth may slow down, says Kourov. Raising the key rate to 15% will lead to an increase in the final cost of transport, which will affect the decision-making on the renewal of the fleet, he explains. Vladimir Chan, CEO of Sovtransavto, agrees with him: "The increase in the Central Bank rate will increase the cost of money and reduce the profitability of the carriers' business, which will force them to reduce the volume of purchases of new equipment." A representative of FKM Leasing also says that the company expects "a certain pause while carriers adapt to the new rates." So far, we are seeing organic market growth, which allows us to be moderately optimistic about the forecasts for 2024, Chan emphasizes.

Nikita Akhmerov, an expert on trucks from Alfa-Leasing, believes that in 2024 a completely redesigned truck market will already be formed. The Chinese auto industry will continue to fill the market, but the dynamics of supply growth will not be as high as in 2022-2023, he concludes. "A leasing product without an advance or with a minimum advance, provided for a long term (up to seven years), supplemented with early repayment options, has become in demand. And those leasing companies that showed flexibility in these parameters were able to increase their portfolio in transport," the representative of FKM Leasing summarizes.

Source: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2023/11/07/1004453-2023-god-stanet-rekordnim-po-prodazham-novih-gruzovikov?utm_campaign=newspaper_7_11_2023&utm_medium=email&utm_source=vedomosti