Russians’ spending on food has increased by 4.5 thousand rubles per month in two years
Source：Kommersant
From：Taiwan Trade Center, Moscow
Update Time：2024/04/05
A February survey by the Analytical Center of the National Financial Information Agency (NAFI) showed that the average spending of Russian citizens on food in 2022 and 2023 increased by 4.5 thousand rubles per month, to 21.1 thousand rubles. According to the survey, 74% of Russians prefer to buy food offline, 3% use exclusively online services for food delivery. At the same time, citizens who buy online spend twice as much on food as offline consumers. The results of the survey are available to Forbes.
Natalia Kuznetsova, director of marketing research at the Analytical Center, told the publication that the cost of buying food in the structure of Russians' expenses takes up about a third. According to the survey, spending on products leads the structure of monthly expenses of citizens of the Russian Federation.
According to the results of the NAFI study, 32% of Russians spend about 10 thousand rubles per month on products for themselves and their family, 34% — from 10 thousand to 20 thousand rubles, 27% — from 20 thousand to 40 thousand rubles, 6% — from 40 thousand to 60 thousand rubles, 2% — over 60 thousand rubles . The share of those who spend more than 20 thousand rubles on food increased from 27% to 34% in 2023.
According to Forbes, the NAFI Analytical Center interviewed 1.6 thousand people aged 18 and over from all regions of Russia. It is claimed that the statistical error of the data does not exceed 2.45%.
In recent years, Russians' spending on food has increased in line with inflation, Ms. Kuznetsova noted. According to her, against the background of socio-economic turbulence, Russian citizens are increasingly striving to save money and choose a store with the best pricing policy.
On February 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that at the end of January, annual inflation in Russia had decreased to 7.2% from December's 7.4%. The central Bank predicts that inflation will decrease to 4-4.5% this year. On February 16, the Central Bank kept the key rate in the Russian Federation at 16%. The regulator noted that uncertainty about the rate of decline in inflation remains, so a strict policy needs to be maintained for a long time.
Following the results of the first meeting this year, the Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 16% per annum — this opens up a period for the Central Bank when maintaining the rate or even slightly reducing it will tighten monetary policy. It is unknown how long this process will last. So far, the time frame can be defined as several months. However, as follows from the updated forecast of the Central Bank, what is happening is considered a problem in 2024, which almost does not apply to the following.
The impact of tight monetary policy on inflation is becoming more pronounced, but the decline in price growth is not yet sustainable. The regulator sees opportunities to reduce the rate, but the deadline for the first reduction has shifted to a later time, and the process will go "smoothly". The forecast for the rate was also slightly raised to 13.5–15.5%. There is no explicit indication in the Central Bank's materials on exactly what "later time" the rate cut was postponed.
Keeping the rate at the current level in practice means an additional tightening of monetary policy without a formal rate movement: inflation is now declining, although by the standards of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia this process cannot be considered sustainable.
On average, in December—January, the current seasonally adjusted price growth decreased to 6.6% year-on-year (compared with 11.5% in the autumn months). The same indicator of core inflation decreased to 7% in annual terms (compared with 10.2% in the autumn months). The annual inflation rate remains close to the levels of December 2023 due to the base effect and, according to estimates on February 12, amounted to 7.4%.
But domestic demand continues to significantly outstrip the possibilities of expanding the production of goods and services, although the Bank of Russia does not currently provide estimates (which by definition cannot be accurate, since we are talking about unobservable indicators) of the output gap, that is, data on the extent of the continuing "overheating" in the economy.
Balancing supply and demand will take "a long time", and this is an additional statement that a tight monetary policy for the coming months is practically guaranteed: a rapid rate cut and a reduction in the separation of the value of money from inflation in 2024, at least in the first half of the year, should not be expected.
Source: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6523699