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The volume of imports of Atlantic salmon has almost halved in five years and amounted to 44,000 tons in 2023, according to the Fish Union. At the same time, since last year, the supply of chilled products has completely stopped: both headless salmon carcasses (in 2021 it was imported over 15,000 tons) and fillets (in 2021 2,500 tons were imported). Before the sanctions were imposed, it came from the Faroe Islands and Norway.

In this regard, the share of imported salmon in the Russian market has decreased: if in 2018 it reached almost 90%, then by the end of 2023 it was only 35% (see the table), says a representative of the Fish Union. Now all imported products come from Chile, he says.

Among the reasons for the decline in imports are sanctions, import substitution and too high prices, experts interviewed by Vedomosti say. Russian aquaculture enterprises were able to replace some of the imported products.

The largest players are building vertically integrated production in Russia: They are not only increasing volumes, but also setting up the production of feed and small fry (salmon fry), said Alexander Panin, chairman of the Fish Union. Russian aquaculture is mainly focused on the domestic market and last year our fish farmers raised 158,600 tons of trout and salmon – this is 2.4 times more than in 2018, says German Zverev, president of the All-Russian Association of Fishermen (VARPE).

Another factor that led to a decrease in salmon imports is the increase in its value, Zverev notes. The years 2020-2023 were record–breaking in terms of a jump in salmon prices on the world market, and for Russia the situation was complicated by the weakening of the national currency (the dollar against the ruble increased by almost 30%, and the euro by 34%), he explained. As a result, the wholesale price of imported salmon in Moscow increased by 2 times: from 600 rubles/kg in September 2018 to 1,210 rubles/kg in September 2023, according to VARPE.

Dynamics of the Russian salmon market by source of supply

Source: Fish Union statistics 

Year	The share of aquaculture in %	The share of import in %	Total supply at the market in thousand tons
2018	25	75	84
2019	39	61	84
2020	48	52	106
2021	51	49	136
2022	71	29	118
2023	65	35	123

According to Defa Group, despite the decrease in salmon supplies to Russia, total salmon imports increased by 30% in 2023. The driver was the more affordable trout from Turkey, Armenia and other countries.

In addition, in 2023, the season became the second largest catch in the modern history of observations – 608,800 tons of Pacific salmon. "Despite the gradual decrease in Atlantic imports, the level of wild salmon production and the production of commercial aquaculture allowed the market to be saturated with domestic salmon products," said a representative of Rosrybolovstvo.

According to Zverev, consumers have greater confidence in domestic products and this encourages retailers and restaurateurs to switch to Russian fish. In the last 12 months up to and including March 2024, sales of red fish began to recover from last year's decline: in physical terms, the growth was +16.9% versus -18.1% in the same period a year earlier, according to the analytical company NielsenIQ. This decrease was due to a reduction in the range of these products on store shelves and an increase in weighted average prices (by about 15% year-on-year), says a representative of NielsenIQ.

In the last two years, the market share of trout has increased (from 66.6 to 70.9%), and the share of salmon, which two years ago occupied more than 20%, has almost halved (to 9%) – primarily due to a reduction in the range, says a representative of NielsenIQ. Now, according to him, pink salmon has become the second most important segment, the share of which has increased from 6 to 12% over the same periods. And the highest growth rates are demonstrated by sales of the smallest segment – sockeye salmon, which occupies about 2% in the category and increases due to the development of distribution.

The trend towards import substitution of salmon is also confirmed by retail chains. Currently, Perekrestok covers almost all salmon needs by a local producer from Murmansk, says a representative of X5 Group. According to him, supermarkets present a small volume of frozen Chilean salmon carcasses and fillets, but by the end of 2024 the chain plans to switch to local raw materials and freezing, thus completely closing the need for salmon by a domestic producer. Metro's assortment includes chilled salmon of only Russian origin from Murmansk, a representative of this retailer said. The same was stated by the representative of Vkusvil, adding that there are items from Chile in the frozen food category. "Basically, consumption is being replaced towards trout, which is 2 times cheaper than salmon," he says.

How salmon are harvested in Russia

Russia is the largest producer of Pacific salmon in the world and fully provides itself with affordable salmon species. 2023 became the second largest catch in the entire history of observations – the total catch of Pacific salmon was 608,800 tons. Most of the catch, 478,000 tons, fell on the most affordable and popular species in the country – pink salmon, according to the VARPE. By September 2023, its selling price in the Far Eastern Federal District reached 150 rubles/kg at a wholesale price of imported salmon in Moscow of 1,210 rubles/kg.

This trend is also confirmed by restaurateurs. TanukiFamily (restaurants "Tanuki", "Kaspiyka", "Ruff" and "Tvoya Pizza") used to buy salmon from producers from the Faroe Islands, but in 2022 they found a replacement in Murmansk from the manufacturer Inarctica. Switching to supplies from the Russian North solved several problems at once: fresh food arrives in restaurants (delivery takes only three days), it is possible to control the quality and volume of supplies. The company does not plan to resume work with foreign suppliers if they return to Russia, said Alla Bondarenko, General Manager of TanukiFamily.

Yakitoria restaurants also use fresh chilled farmed salmon produced in Russia, says Yakitoria brand chef Stanislav Bakharovsky. According to him, bringing fresh fish from Chile means increasing the cost of the dish several times, so only frozen fish is supplied from there, which is mainly used for processing: pickling and smoking. Such a product is used in Russia, including for the production of sushi and rolls, but Yakitoria does not work with such fish, says Bakharovsky.

The representative of Moremania noted the increase in the cost of Chilean salmon, but at the same time the aquaculture salmon increased in price even more, he says. According to him, consumption is shifting to trout, mainly Russian, as well as supplies from Turkey and Armenia.

Russian restaurants began to buy less salmon due to its rise in price and complicated logistics, but it is difficult to completely replace it with Russian aquaculture salmon, says Sergey Mironov, founder of the Moscow chain of restaurants Meat & Fish, chairman of the Federation of Restaurateurs and Hoteliers. According to him, there are not so many farmed salmon yet, and besides, it is grown from imported fry on imported feeds, which is why it is also becoming more expensive. In addition, only chinook salmon, sockeye salmon and coho salmon are suitable for red fish steaks, but not pink salmon and chum salmon.

In 2023, 25,000 tons of coho salmon were caught in Russia and almost all of it is frozen in the form of briquettes, which is not suitable for restaurants, and almost all individually frozen carcasses were imported to Asian countries, says Mironov. In order to provide for all his Meat & Fish franchisees, the businessman had to send buyers to Kamchatka, negotiate with fishing companies and transport fish independently to Vladivostok, then to Moscow and rent freezers to store fish until the next season. "Three months later, the catching will be again, and for me again the quest is to buy this fish, look for transport, etc.," complains the restaurateur. According to him, salmon supplies to the interior of the country should be adjusted with the support of the state in the form of subsidies and preferences.

In April, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev announced that this year the Ministry of Agriculture also intends to subsidize the rail transportation of pink salmon and sardines from the Far East. 

Source: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2024/04/18/1032559-za-pyat-let-import-semgi-v-rossiyu-upal-pochti-vdvoe?utm_campaign=newspaper_18_4_2024&utm_medium=email&utm_source=vedomosti