The US Senate approved a ban on the supply of enriched uranium from Russia
Source：Vedomosti
From：Taiwan Trade Center, Moscow
Update Time：2024/05/14
On April 30, the U.S. Senate unanimously approved a bill banning the supply of uranium enriched in Russia for American nuclear power plants until 2040, according to the congressional website. The document was adopted by the House of Representatives in December 2023 and will enter into force 90 days after being signed by President Joe Biden.
The bill is valid until December 31, 2040. But until January 1, 2028, it allows temporary exceptions. The U.S. Department of Energy, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Finance, will be able to issue permits for the import of Russian uranium if other sources of supply are unavailable or if national interests require it. In addition, the Ministry of Energy is ordered to present alternatives to uranium from Russia to the Congress.
According to the assessment of the US Energy Information Administration, cited by Bloomberg, Russia is the main foreign supplier of enriched uranium to the USA, its share is about 24%. These volumes are used to refuel more than 90 nuclear power plant reactors. According to the US Statistics Service, in 2023, Russia increased uranium supplies to the United States in monetary terms to $ 1.2 billion, and this is the maximum for the entire time of statistics, RIA Novosti reported. The previous maximum was recorded in 2010 – $1.05 billion. In absolute terms, in 2023 Russia supplied 702 tons of uranium to the United States against 588 tons a year earlier (the record was in 2013 – 982 tons).
According to the state corporation's report for 2022, Rosatom's foreign revenue in 2022 increased by 31% to $11.75 billion, including through the nuclear fuel cycle – by 23% to $4.1 billion (detailed breakdown is not provided).
Russia ranks the 1st in the world in uranium enrichment.
Rosatom's share in this segment in 2022 was estimated at 35% in the state corporation's report, and 17% in the nuclear fuel fabrication market. Despite the fact that the White House considers dependence on Russian uranium to be a risk, unlike other energy resources, a ban on its import to the United States was not introduced in 2022.
EXPORT OF URANIUM FROM RUSSIA TO THE USA
|
Year
|
US$ million
|
Volume in tons
|
|
2020
|
568
|
453
|
|
2021
|
646
|
550
|
|
2022
|
830
|
588
|
|
2023
|
1190
|
702
|
Source: UN Comtrade
Republican Senator from Wyoming John Barrasso, after the bill was passed in the Senate, said that uranium from his state could be used as a substitute for Russian, Reuters reports. He added that "the bipartisan bill will help reduce funding for the Russian military machine" and "give a boost to investments in the American nuclear fuel supply chain."
In addition, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin explained that the bill opens up the opportunity to satisfy the White House's March request for $2.7 billion to stimulate the US uranium industry. At the same time, due to the delay in the process in parliament, the Biden administration considered the option of banning supplies by the executive branch, but eventually waited for a more preferable scenario.
According to Jonathan Hinz, president of the UxC analytical company, quoted by Bloomberg, the price of enrichment services in the event of abandonment of Russian uranium could rise by 20% from the current $165 per unit of separation work (used to measure isotope separation work). Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak (who oversees the fuel and energy sector) in 2023 also allowed a ban on uranium exports from Russia as a response to the introduction of restrictions.In June 2023 Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev said that the American market in the future "will become uninteresting" to the state corporation due to the closeness and excessive regulation.
Rosatom, with a production volume of about 7,100 tons of natural (unenriched) uranium per year (data for 2021), ranks 2nd in the world in terms
of production after Kazakhstan's KazAtomprom. In 2022, Rosatom accounted for about 14% of global uranium production, according to data from the analytical company UxC and the annual report of the state corporation. Rosatom produces uranium in the Kurgan region, TransBaikalia and Buryatia, as well as in Kazakhstan through the Uranium One company.
According to Rosatom, in 2022, the production of natural uranium in the world increased by 6% to 50,400 tons (i.e., the production of the state corporation is approximately 7,056 tons). At the same time, according to UxC calculations (indicated in the Rosatom report), global reactor requirements last year amounted to 63,500 tons, and taking into account the formation of commercial and strategic reserves – 74,300 tons.
About 85% of global production was provided by nine companies: Kazatomprom, Chinese CNNC and CGN, members of Rosatom Atomredmetzoloto (produces inside Russia) and Uranium One, as well as French Orano, Canadian Cameco, Uzbek Navoiuran and Australian-British BHP.
Judging by the available information in open data, the fuel supply for American nuclear power plants is on average enough for a year, i.e. the exceptions until 2028 in the adopted bill are not accidental at all, says Alexander Uvarov, an expert on nuclear energy, editor-in-chief of the AtomInfo industry portal. In this scenario, there will be no negative consequences for Rosatom in the near future. In theory, European suppliers can become an alternative for Americans, but they are working at the limit of their capabilities, and the expansion of their capacities is planned only for the end of the 2020s, Uvarov points out. China produces enriched uranium at about the level of its needs, the expert notes, in addition, the United States has claims against China, similar to those that are addressed to Russia.
The United States continues to hang swords of Damocles over Russian export revenues, but at the same time there is no real alternative to Russian supplies at current prices, says Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at Vector X investment company. The text of the bill allows Americans to prolong the ban on its use if there is no available alternative. Most likely, now the cost of fuel on the world market will increase by 15-20%, Khudalov believes.
The United States can, in principle, negotiate with European suppliers, but then Europe will need Rosatom's enriched uranium to cover the resulting deficit. Perhaps China will partially be able to smooth out the fuel shortage for the United States, but this can be done at a fundamentally different cost, Khudalov believes. At the same time, according to the expert, the United States may not look for any alternative to Russian supplies at all, but instead develop funds for its own production and enrichment of uranium until 2028, and then request new ones.
Source: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2024/05/02/1034985-senat-ssha-odobril-zapret-postavok-obogaschennogo-urana-iz-rossii?utm_campaign=newspaper_2_5_2024&utm_medium=email&utm_source