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The production of civil vessels in Russia will not keep pace with demand in the next three years, according to a review by the State Transport Leasing Company (STLC). In 2024, domestic shipyards will produce a total of 74 vessels with an expected demand of 112 units.

The production structure for this year involves the production of 17 passenger ships, six tankers, 15 bulk carriers, 14 fishing vessels, three tugs, 18 dredgers and one floating platform. For comparison, the estimated needs of consumers for this year include 27 passenger ships, eight tankers, 24 bulk carriers, 23 fishing vessels, five tugs, 24 dredgers and one platform.

In the following years, as the STLC suggests, the difference between demand and production will decrease, but mainly due to a reduction in demand, and not due to an increase in ship production. For example, in 2025, the projected demand for domestic vessels is 101 units, while only 77 will be produced. The ratio of demand and actual output for 2026 is 95 and 74, respectively, follows from the document.

In its calculations, the leasing company uses data from the list of critical industrial products in shipbuilding for 2024 and the planning period 2025-2026, regulated by Order of the Ministry of Industry and Trade No. 1353 dated March 29, 2024, follows from the review. A representative of STLC explained to Vedomosti that the company in its forecasts "was based on the only relevant official document available."

At the same time, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, who oversees industry, in May, speaking in the State Duma, cited different data. According to him, Russian shipyards plan to deliver more than 110 civilian ships this year compared to 108 a year earlier (quote from TASS). Order No. 1353 does not take into account the full demand stated by various customers, including for ships and marine equipment, State Secretary and Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Viktor Evtukhov told Vedomosti. He added that the figure mentioned by Manturov – more than110 – is correct and includes all ships planned for delivery this year.

The target values for the production of civil vessels in the country are also fixed in the shipbuilding development strategy until 2035, and they are even higher than those named by Manturov. According to the current version of the document, in 2023, domestic shipbuilders were supposed to produce 138 vessels (with a displacement of more than 80 tons), the plan for 2024 is 159 units, for 2025 – 189, for 2026 - 202 vessels.

But the strategy was approved back in 2019. And now, according to Yevtukhov, changes are being made to it. He clarified that in the third quarter it should be updated in conjunction with the strategy of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC). "For our part, we see a great need in the regions to upgrade the passenger fleet, cargo owners – in cargo ships for the North–South corridor. It is important that this need be met by effective demand," the official stressed.

Production in this segment in 2024 will support the growth of transportation by sea and river transport, according to the STLC review. Thus, the volume of cargo transportation by inland waterways will grow this year by 13% to 123 million tons by 2022, and river passenger transportation by 15-17%, STLC notes, referring to the Rosmorrechflot (Russian Sea River Fleet) estimate. The review does not provide absolute figures for river passenger transportation. Transshipment in Russian seaports will grow, according to the data provided, by 7% to 950 million tons.

Last year, STLC leased 15 vessels to shipping companies, a representative of the company told Vedomosti. By the end of 2024, it is planned to transfer over 40 vessels to lessees, he added. Production is limited by a shortage of foreign components and electrical equipment, a shortage of personnel in shipbuilding, insufficient development of the technological and design base of Russian shipbuilding in certain areas – for example, fishing fleet, large-tonnage shipbuilding, etc., the interlocutor continues.

In January, USC (United Shipbuilding Corporation) planned to transfer 36 civil vessels to customers in 2024, compared to 25 a year earlier. The prospective demand for civil vessels for Russian ship-owners until 2035 was estimated by USC at 589 units at the end of 2023 (Vedomosti wrote about this on January 23, 2024). The total cost of these orders is 1.36 trillion rubles. 

Discrepancies in the plans for the construction of ships raise doubts that the relevant structures have correct information about the situation in the industry, says Mikhail Grigoriev, director of the consulting company Gekon. At the same time, the real demand for ships remains uncertain, since regulators do not have a unified methodological approach to assessing the need for such equipment, the analyst emphasizes. "There is no binding of vessels to specific projects, no indication of ice classes, no deadweight," he sums up.

According to Grigoriev, now Russian shipbuilders do not have their own competencies in large-tonnage (with a displacement of more than 80,000 tons) shipbuilding. Therefore, short-term plans for the development of a large-tonnage fleet for Russian customers are associated with the construction of ships at Chinese shipyards, he explains. "In the long term, we are talking about the construction of a new shipyard in Russia, most likely in the northwest, but this is a horizon of five to seven years," the analyst added.

Manturov said in May that a decision on the construction of a new shipyard for the needs of the Northern Sea Route would be made by the end of this year.

The forecast of STLC can be considered basic in terms of implementation this year, says Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline Analytics. He did not rule out that the delivery of some categories of ships may be postponed from 2024 to 2025 due to a shortage of personnel at shipyards, insufficient automation of production and sanctions. They mainly affected the production time of fishing vessels, where the share of imported equipment is the highest, Burmistrov said.

More optimistic forecasts now look unattainable, as well as the plans reflected in the industry strategy – even taking into account the proposed transformation of USC, which was transferred to VTB management in 2023, the analyst continues. It will be "extremely difficult" for the industry to operate without serious financial support, he stated. To modernize the corporation's production facilities, capital investments of almost 2 trillion rubles will be required until 2035, RBC wrote at the end of last year.

Source: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2024/05/30/1040379-gtlk-prognoziruet-defitsit-otechestvennih-grazhdanskih-sudov?utm_campaign=newspaper_30_5_2024&utm_medium=email&utm_source=vedomosti