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The market for new medium-tonnage (from 6 tons) and heavy (from 12-14 tons) trucks in 2024 in the baseline scenario will amount to 128,360 units – 11% less than a year earlier. Such data is contained in the forecast of the National Agency for Industrial Information (NAPI). It was presented on August 20 at the Moscow Automotive Forum by the agency’s director Tatyana Arabadzhi.

The optimistic scenario assumes a decline in sales this year by 8% to 132,460 trucks, the pessimistic one – by 14% to 124,310 units.

According to NAPI, 72,500 trucks were sold in Russia in the first seven months of 2024, which is 5% less than a year earlier. Similar data was previously reported by the analytical agency Avtostat: 71,900 vehicles (-5%). The sales structure for January-July was dominated by vehicles from China: they accounted for 52% of the market. 43% were occupied by Russian manufacturers, the rest by other foreign companies. Over the year, the picture in terms of the origin of equipment has not undergone significant changes. Although at the beginning of 2022, it was completely different. Then 81% of the market belonged to domestic automakers and only 7% to Chinese ones.

The majority of trucks sold in the past period of 2024 (41%) were tractor units, according to NAPI data. Another 18% were dump trucks, 11% were vans, 8% were flatbed and tarpaulin vehicles, and 7% were lifting equipment.

The leader of the domestic market of truck tractors for the first seven months was the Chinese Sitrak, which reduced sales of equipment by 2% year-on-year to 10,400 units. Next come three more brands from China - Dong Feng, FAW and Shacman. Domestic Kamaz took only the fifth place, having sold 3,000 such vehicles (-16%).

The average price of a new truck in July was 11.5 million rubles, up 6% over 12 months, according to NAPI data.

The agency expects a continued decline in truck sales in 2025. In the baseline scenario, sales will amount to 121,480 vehicles, which is 5% lower than the projected results for 2024. The optimistic scenario assumes sales of 127,450 units of equipment, while the pessimistic scenario assumes sales of 115,880 units.

Among the key factors negatively affecting the development of the domestic car market, NAPI names sanctions, high interest rates on loans and leasing, growth of recycling fees, tightening of rules for certification of imported equipment and limited volume of local production. The base scenario of the forecast for this year assumes an increase in the key rate by 1-2 percentage points in the second half of the year, inflation at 6.1% and the absence of additional funds for programs to support demand for automobile equipment.

The heavy-duty truck market is declining on a high base, as expected at the beginning of the year, says a KAMAZ representative. The company predicts that 105,000-115,000 units of such equipment will be sold in Russia in 2024, compared to a record 135,000 units a year earlier. Such results look negative only against the backdrop of record sales volumes in 2023, the source explains. He admits that there will be “some activation” of demand in the fall before the recycling fee is increased.

The forecast for this year, especially for heavy equipment, significantly exceeds the average historical values of this market at around 70,000 vehicles per year, notes Vladimir Bespalov, an analyst at Euler Analytical Technologies. For comparison, almost 144,000 new medium-duty and heavy trucks were sold in Russia last year.

The trends in the economy are not bad, but there is a tightening of monetary policy, the availability of loans and leasing is decreasing, which will slow down this market, the expert believes. But a precipitous fall should not happen, since there is demand and it will continue to normalize towards historical market values, Bespalov believes.

Source: https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2024/08/21/1056956-eksperti-prognoziruyut-snizhenie-prodazh-gruzovikov